Dundalk v Derry City: the model read
Dundalk meet Derry City in the Premier Division regular season - 19 at Oriel Park, Dundalk. The model makes Dundalk the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% DUN, 30% draw, 34% DER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Dundalk, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Dundalk on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Dundalk at 52%; double chance reads Dundalk or draw 66%, Derry City or draw 64%.
Dundalk arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ St Patrick's Athl., W 3-1 @ St Mochta's, L 1-2 v Drogheda United, L 1-2 @ Shelbourne.
Derry City are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ HNK Rijeka, W 3-0 v Tolka Rovers, L 1-2 v CSKA Sofia, L 2-3 @ CSKA Sofia.
Derry City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
