Where the market is wrong on Corinthians v Santos
Corinthians meet Santos in the Serie A regular season - 25 at Neo Química Arena, Sao Paulo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1598, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Santos, 64% against 55%. Attacking output favors Santos on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.2 per match.
Corinthians arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Santos, L 1-2 @ Coritiba, W 1-0 v Rosario Central, L 1-2 v Cruzeiro.
Santos are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Corinthians, L 0-3 @ Palmeiras, D 1-1 v Mirassol, D 0-0 @ Macara.
Corinthians hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Corinthians 0-1 Santos.
The market prices COR at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Santos: a 16.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
