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Serie A · Regular Season - 22 · Brazil

Gremio v Sao Paulo

2-1Full time· Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre· Referee: A. Policarpo Bento

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Gremio v Sao Paulo: the model read

Gremio meet Sao Paulo in the Serie A regular season - 22 at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre.

The baseline ratings are close, 1504 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 42%. Attacking output favors Gremio on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.

Gremio arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Chapecoense-sc, D 0-0 @ Internacional, L 0-1 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-3 @ Atletico-MG.

Sao Paulo are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v RB Bragantino, L 0-1 @ Chapecoense-sc, W 3-1 v Bolívar, D 1-1 v Coritiba.

The recent head-to-head is even, 5 apiece across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Gremio

WLLDW7-5-7

Scored 1.37 · Conceded 1.37 · Clean sheets 15.8% · BTTS 68.4%

  • WHChapecoense-sc3-1
  • DAInternacional0-0
  • LARB Bragantino0-1
  • LAAtletico-MG0-3
  • WHSao Paulo2-1

Sao Paulo

DDWLW4-8-7

Scored 1.11 · Conceded 1.21 · Clean sheets 21.1% · BTTS 68.4%

  • WHRB Bragantino2-1
  • LAChapecoense-sc0-1
  • WHBolívar3-1
  • DHCoritiba1-1
  • DABolívar1-1

Head-to-head

10 meetings

GremiorecordSao Paulo
5
5
0 draws

Goals

13-13

for each

Avg goals

2.6

per game

BTTS

50%

both scored

Over 2.5

70%

3+ goals

Gremio

Recent
WLWLWL
Wins 5Goals 13-13

Biggest win 3-0

Sao Paulo

Recent
LWLWLW
Wins 5Goals 13-13

Biggest win 3-0

  • Gremio2-1Sao Paulo
  • Sao Paulo2-0Gremio
  • Gremio2-0Sao Paulo
  • Sao Paulo2-1Gremio
  • Gremio2-1Sao Paulo
  • Sao Paulo1-0Gremio
  • Sao Paulo3-0Gremio
  • Gremio2-1Sao Paulo
  • Gremio3-0Sao Paulo
  • Sao Paulo2-1Gremio

Managers

Luis Castro

Head coach

In charge since 2026

Machado Roger

Head coach

In charge since 2026

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.