Where the market is wrong on Portland Timbers v Austin
Portland Timbers meet Austin in the Major League Soccer regular season - 22 at Providence Park, Portland.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Portland Timbers on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Portland Timbers arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Austin, D 1-1 @ Los Angeles FC, W 3-1 v San Diego, L 1-2 @ Chicago Fire.
Austin are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Portland Timbers, L 0-2 @ Toluca, D 1-1 v Philadelphia Union, W 2-1 @ Seattle Sounders.
Portland Timbers hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin.
The market prices POR at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Austin: a 12.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
