Where the market is wrong on Seattle Sounders v Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders meet Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer regular season - 22 at Lumen Field, Seattle.
Chicago Fire rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1408. Recent form leans Chicago Fire, 63% against 35%. Attacking output favors Chicago Fire on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.3 per match.
Seattle Sounders arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Chicago Fire, D 1-1 @ FC Cincinnati, L 1-2 v Austin, L 0-2 v Vancouver Whitecaps.
Chicago Fire are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Seattle Sounders, L 1-2 @ Monterrey, D 1-1 @ New York Red Bulls, W 2-1 @ Orlando City SC.
The market prices SEA at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Chicago Fire: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
