San Jose Earthquakes v Minnesota United FC

San Jose Earthquakes meet Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 21 at PayPal Park, San Jose.

The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 45%. Attacking output favors San Jose Earthquakes on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Minnesota United FC at 50%; double chance reads San Jose Earthquakes or draw 64%, Minnesota United FC or draw 65%.

San Jose Earthquakes arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v Minnesota United FC, L 0-1 @ Los Angeles Galaxy, L 1-3 v St. Louis City, L 2-4 @ FC Cincinnati.

Minnesota United FC are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes, L 1-2 v Atlanta United FC, D 1-1 @ Real Salt Lake, W 3-1 v Atlante FC.

Minnesota United FC hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC.

The market prices SAN at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.