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Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 20 · USA

Toronto FC v Charlotte

3-3Full time· BMO Field, Toronto· Referee: Alexis Da Silva, USA

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Toronto FC v Charlotte: the model read

Toronto FC meet Charlotte in the Major League Soccer regular season - 20 at BMO Field, Toronto.

The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Charlotte on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 71%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans Charlotte at 59%; double chance reads Toronto FC or draw 57%, Charlotte or draw 71%.

Toronto FC arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Inter Miami, D 3-3 v Charlotte, W 2-1 v New England Revolution, D 1-1 @ New York City FC.

Charlotte are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v DC United, D 3-3 @ Toronto FC, W 3-1 v Columbus Crew, L 0-1 v CF Pachuca.

Charlotte hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toronto FC 3-3 Charlotte.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Toronto FC

LDWDW5-9-6

Scored 1.50 · Conceded 1.70 · Clean sheets 15% · BTTS 85%

  • WAInter Miami2-1
  • DHCharlotte3-3
  • WHNew England Revolution2-1
  • DANew York City FC1-1
  • LADC United1-2

Charlotte

WLWDW9-3-7

Scored 1.89 · Conceded 1.37 · Clean sheets 26.3% · BTTS 52.6%

  • WHDC United3-1
  • DAToronto FC3-3
  • WHColumbus Crew3-1
  • LHCF Pachuca0-1
  • WHAtlas2-0

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Toronto FCrecordCharlotte
3
5
2 draws

Goals

15-18

for each

Avg goals

3.3

per game

BTTS

40%

both scored

Over 2.5

60%

3+ goals

Toronto FC

Recent
DLLLLW
Wins 3Goals 15-18

Biggest win 4-0

Charlotte

Recent
DWWWWL
Wins 5Goals 18-15

Biggest win 3-0

  • Toronto FC3-3Charlotte
  • Charlotte3-1Toronto FC
  • Charlotte2-0Toronto FC
  • Toronto FC0-2Charlotte
  • Charlotte3-2Toronto FC
  • Toronto FC1-0Charlotte
  • Charlotte3-0Toronto FC
  • Toronto FC2-2Charlotte
  • Charlotte0-2Toronto FC
  • Toronto FC4-0Charlotte

Managers

R. Fraser

USA · 59

In charge since 2025 · 4 clubs managed

  • Colorado Rapids2019–2023
  • Toronto2015–2018
  • Chivas USA2011–2012

D. Smith

England · 54

In charge since 2023 · 6 clubs managed

  • Leicester City2023–2023
  • Norwich City2021–2022
  • Aston Villa2018–2021
  • Brentford2015–2018

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.