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Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18 · USA

Colorado Rapids v San Diego

1-0Full time· Referee: C. Penso

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Colorado Rapids v San Diego

Colorado Rapids meet San Diego in the Major League Soccer regular season - 18. The model makes Colorado Rapids the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% COL, 28% draw, 34% SAN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 48%. Attacking output favors San Diego on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 78%. Draw no bet leans Colorado Rapids at 52%; double chance reads Colorado Rapids or draw 66%, San Diego or draw 62%.

Colorado Rapids arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v FC Juarez, L 1-2 v FC Dallas, W 2-0 v San Jose Earthquakes, L 1-2 @ Real Salt Lake.

San Diego are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 13 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v Vancouver Whitecaps, D 3-3 v FC Cincinnati, W 5-0 v Austin, D 1-1 @ Seattle Sounders.

Colorado Rapids hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Colorado Rapids 1-0 San Diego.

The market prices COL at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on San Diego: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Colorado Rapids

WLWLD8-3-9

Scored 1.70 · Conceded 1.35 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 60%

  • DHFC Juarez1-1
  • LHFC Dallas1-2
  • WHSan Jose Earthquakes2-0
  • LAReal Salt Lake1-2
  • WAMinnesota United FC1-0

San Diego

DDWDL7-5-8

Scored 1.95 · Conceded 1.75 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 55%

  • LHVancouver Whitecaps2-4
  • DHFC Cincinnati3-3
  • WHAustin5-0
  • DASeattle Sounders1-1
  • DHLos Angeles FC2-2

Head-to-head

3 meetings

Colorado RapidsrecordSan Diego
2
1
0 draws

Goals

4-4

for each

Avg goals

2.7

per game

BTTS

33%

both scored

Over 2.5

33%

3+ goals

Colorado Rapids

Recent
WLW
Wins 2Goals 4-4

Biggest win 1-0

San Diego

Recent
LWL
Wins 1Goals 4-4

Biggest win 2-0

  • Colorado Rapids1-0San Diego
  • San Diego2-0Colorado Rapids
  • Colorado Rapids3-2San Diego

Managers

C. Little

USA

In charge since 2023 · 2 clubs managed

  • Tacoma Defiance2019–2020

M. Varas

USA · 43

In charge since 2024 · 3 clubs managed

  • United States2024–2024
  • United States U202021–2023

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.