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World Cup · Group Stage - 1 · World

England v Croatia

4-2Full time· AT&T Stadium, Arlington· Referee: Clement Turpin, France

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Match analysisPre-match brief

England v Croatia: the model read

England meet Croatia in the World Cup group stage - 1 at AT&T Stadium, Arlington.

The baseline ratings are close, 1730 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans England, 80% against 65%. Attacking output favors England on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.

England arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 14 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 6-4 @ France, L 1-2 v Argentina, W 2-1 @ Norway, W 3-2 @ Mexico.

Croatia are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Portugal, W 2-1 v Ghana, W 1-0 @ Panama, L 2-4 @ England.

England hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: England 4-2 Croatia.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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England

WWWLW15-2-3

Scored 2.30 · Conceded 0.85 · Clean sheets 55% · BTTS 40%

  • WAFrance6-4
  • LHArgentina1-2
  • WANorway2-1
  • WAMexico3-2
  • WHCongo DR2-1

Croatia

WLWWL12-2-6

Scored 2.00 · Conceded 1.10 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 50%

  • LAPortugal1-2
  • WHGhana2-1
  • WAPanama1-0
  • LAEngland2-4
  • WHSlovenia2-1

Head-to-head

5 meetings

EnglandrecordCroatia
3
1
1 draw

Goals

8-5

for each

Avg goals

2.6

per game

BTTS

60%

both scored

Over 2.5

60%

3+ goals

England

Recent
WWWDL
Wins 3Goals 8-5

Biggest win 4-2

Croatia

Recent
LLLDW
Wins 1Goals 5-8

Biggest win 2-1

  • England4-2Croatia
  • England1-0Croatia
  • England2-1Croatia
  • Croatia0-0England
  • Croatia2-1England

Managers

T. Tuchel

Germany · 52

In charge since 2025 · 6 teams managed

  • Bayern Munich2023–2024
  • Chelsea2021–2022
  • PSG2018–2020
  • Borussia Dortmund2015–2017

Z. Dalić

Croatia · 59

In charge since 2017 · 4 teams managed

  • Al Ain2014–2017
  • Al Hilal2013–2013
  • Al Faisaly2010–2012

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.