Club Milano v Pistoiese: the model read
Club Milano meet Pistoiese in the Coppa Italia Serie D semi-finals. The model makes Pistoiese the most likely outcome at 52%, with the full read 21% CLU, 27% draw, 52% PIS.
Pistoiese rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1719 to 1523. Recent form leans Pistoiese, 80% against 50%. Attacking output favors Pistoiese on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Pistoiese at 71%; double chance reads Club Milano or draw 48%, Pistoiese or draw 79%.
Club Milano arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Asti, L 0-1 @ Sanremese, W 6-1 v NovaRomentin, W 1-0 @ Cairese.
Pistoiese are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Piacenza, W 5-0 v Cittadella Vis Modena, D 1-1 @ Desenzano Calvina, L 0-1 v Coriano.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
