Sweden W v Spain W: the model read
Sweden W meet Spain W in the UEFA Nations League - Women semi-finals at Gamla Ullevi, undefined. The model makes Spain W the most likely outcome at 57%, with the full read 18% SWE, 25% draw, 57% SPA.
Spain W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1799 to 1546. Recent form leans Spain W, 90% against 57%. Attacking output favors Spain W on expected goals, 3.2 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Spain W at 75%; double chance reads Sweden W or draw 43%, Spain W or draw 82%.
Sweden W arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Italy W, L 1-2 @ Denmark W, W 1-0 v Serbia W, L 1-2 v Denmark W.
Spain W are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 18 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 6-1 @ Iceland W, W 4-0 v England W, W 5-0 v Ukraine W, L 0-1 @ England W.
Spain W hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Sweden W 0-1 Spain W.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
