Newcastle Town v Chasetown: the model read
Newcastle Town meet Chasetown in the Non League Div One - Northern West northern west - 30 at Red Industries Lyme Valley Stadium, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire. The model makes Newcastle Town the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% NEW, 32% draw, 31% CHA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1547 to 1458, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Newcastle Town, 56% against 42%. Attacking output favors Newcastle Town on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Newcastle Town at 54%; double chance reads Newcastle Town or draw 69%, Chasetown or draw 63%.
Newcastle Town arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Runcorn Linnets, W 3-2 @ Lower Breck, W 1-0 @ Trafford, W 3-1 v Kidsgrove Athletic.
Chasetown are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Stalybridge Celtic, W 2-1 v Congleton Town, L 1-2 @ Atherton Collieries, D 0-0 v Stafford Rangers.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output