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Copa Paulista · Semi-finals · Brazil

Primavera SP v Grêmio Prudente

2-1Full time· Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas, São Paulo

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Primavera SP v Grêmio Prudente: the model read

Primavera SP meet Grêmio Prudente in the Copa Paulista semi-finals at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas, São Paulo. The model makes Primavera SP the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% PRI, 33% draw, 30% GRÊ.

The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 40%. Attacking output favors Primavera SP on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Primavera SP at 55%; double chance reads Primavera SP or draw 70%, Grêmio Prudente or draw 63%.

Primavera SP arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Paulista, L 1-2 @ Ceara, W 3-0 @ Araguaína, D 3-3 v Noroeste.

Grêmio Prudente are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Marília, D 1-1 @ Taubaté, L 0-2 v Ferroviária, L 3-4 @ Água Santa.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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See plans

Primavera SP

LDWLL8-3-9

Scored 1.50 · Conceded 1.20 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 50%

  • LAPaulista0-1
  • LACeara1-2
  • WAAraguaína3-0
  • DHNoroeste3-3
  • LASao Paulo1-2

Grêmio Prudente

WLLDL3-10-7

Scored 0.90 · Conceded 1.00 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 45%

  • LAMarília0-1
  • DATaubaté1-1
  • LHFerroviária0-2
  • LAÁgua Santa3-4
  • WALinense2-0

Managers

Fernando Marchiori

Brazil · 46

In charge since 2024 · 12 clubs managed

  • Santo André2023–2024
  • Sampaio Corrêa2023–2023
  • Náutico2023–2023
  • ABC2022–2023

Luiz Carlos Martins

Brazil · 70

In charge since 2024 · 4 clubs managed

  • Comercial2024–2024
  • Matonense2023–2023
  • Noroeste2020–2023

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.