Criciuma v Caravaggio: the model read
Criciuma meet Caravaggio in the Copa Santa Catarina group stage - 6 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma, Santa Catarina. The model makes Criciuma the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% CRI, 31% draw, 32% CAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Criciuma, 75% against 57%. Attacking output favors Caravaggio on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Criciuma at 54%; double chance reads Criciuma or draw 68%, Caravaggio or draw 63%.
Criciuma arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Novorizontino, W 2-0 v Vila Nova, W 2-1 @ Ponte Preta, W 1-0 v Sport Recife.
Caravaggio are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Hercílio Luz, D 2-2 @ Nação, W 2-1 v Tubarao, W 9-0 v Jaraguá.
Criciuma hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Criciuma 4-1 Caravaggio.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
