Criciuma v Tubarao: the model read
Criciuma meet Tubarao in the Copa Santa Catarina group stage - 4 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma, Santa Catarina. The model makes Criciuma the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% CRI, 33% draw, 27% TUB.
Criciuma rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1489. Recent form leans Criciuma, 75% against 48%. Attacking output favors Criciuma on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Criciuma at 60%; double chance reads Criciuma or draw 73%, Tubarao or draw 60%.
Criciuma arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Novorizontino, W 2-0 v Vila Nova, W 2-1 @ Ponte Preta, W 1-0 v Sport Recife.
Tubarao are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Fluminense-SC, L 0-2 v Hercílio Luz, L 1-2 @ Caravaggio, L 2-3 v Metropolitano.
Criciuma hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Criciuma 0-0 Tubarao.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
