Primavera SP v Paulista: the model read
Primavera SP meet Paulista in the Copa Paulista round of 16 at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas, São Paulo. The model makes Paulista the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 32% PRI, 32% draw, 36% PAU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Paulista, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Primavera SP on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Paulista at 53%; double chance reads Primavera SP or draw 64%, Paulista or draw 68%.
Primavera SP arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Paulista, L 1-2 @ Ceara, W 3-0 @ Araguaína, D 3-3 v Noroeste.
Paulista are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Primavera SP, L 0-1 @ Portuguesa Santista, W 2-1 v Portuguesa Santista, W 3-1 @ Catanduva.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Paulista 1-0 Primavera SP.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
