URK v Excelsior '31: the model read
URK meet Excelsior '31 in the Derde Divisie - Saturday group a - 34 at Sportpark De Vormt, Urk. The model makes Excelsior '31 the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 32% URK, 27% draw, 41% EXC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 45%. Attacking output favors URK on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 82%, over 2.5 goals around 86%. Draw no bet leans Excelsior '31 at 56%; double chance reads URK or draw 59%, Excelsior '31 or draw 68%.
URK arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Excelsior '31, W 1-0 @ Hsc 21, W 2-1 v ADO '20, W 3-2 @ Harkemase Boys.
Excelsior '31 are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ URK, W 3-1 v Staphorst, D 1-1 @ TEC, L 0-1 v Harkemase Boys.
URK hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: URK 1-2 Excelsior '31.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
