Irapuato v Tapatío: the model read
Irapuato meet Tapatío in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 14 at Estadio Sergio León Chávez, Irapuato. The model makes Tapatío the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 35% IRA, 28% draw, 37% TAP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 48%. Attacking output favors Tapatío on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Tapatío at 51%; double chance reads Irapuato or draw 63%, Tapatío or draw 65%.
Irapuato arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Mineros de Zacatecas, W 2-1 @ Tapatío, W 3-1 v CA La Paz, L 0-2 @ Monarcas.
Tapatío are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Leon, L 0-1 @ Cancún, D 1-1 v Cancún, L 1-3 @ Dorados.
Irapuato hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tapatío 1-2 Irapuato.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
