Skip to content
Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4 · Mexico

Tepatitlán v Dorados

3-0Full time· Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, Tepatitlán de Morelos· Referee: Orlando Delgadillo Franco

Share
Match analysisPre-match brief

Tepatitlán v Dorados: the model read

Tepatitlán meet Dorados in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 4 at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, Tepatitlán de Morelos. The model makes Tepatitlán the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% TEP, 30% draw, 24% DOR.

Tepatitlán rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Tepatitlán, 57% against 30%. Attacking output favors Tepatitlán on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Tepatitlán at 66%; double chance reads Tepatitlán or draw 76%, Dorados or draw 53%.

Tepatitlán arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Durango, L 0-2 @ CDS Tampico Madero, W 3-1 v CDS Tampico Madero, W 1-0 v CDS Tampico Madero.

Dorados are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Tapatío, L 0-2 @ Tlaxcala, W 2-1 v Correcaminos Uat, L 0-2 @ Atlante FC.

Tepatitlán hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dorados 0-0 Tepatitlán.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

Pro

The model forecast is a Pro feature.

Live scores, stats and commentary are always free. The glass-box model — probabilities, the edge against the market and the full match dossier — unlocks on Pro.

See plans

Tepatitlán

DWWLL8-7-5

Scored 1.25 · Conceded 0.85 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 40%

  • LHDurango0-1
  • LACDS Tampico Madero0-2
  • WHCDS Tampico Madero3-1
  • WHCDS Tampico Madero1-0
  • DACDS Tampico Madero0-0

Dorados

DLWLW3-6-11

Scored 1.05 · Conceded 1.95 · Clean sheets 10% · BTTS 55%

  • WHTapatío3-1
  • LATlaxcala0-2
  • WHCorrecaminos Uat2-1
  • LAAtlante FC0-2
  • DHLeones Negros UDG1-1

Head-to-head

10 meetings

TepatitlánrecordDorados
5
3
2 draws

Goals

13-6

for each

Avg goals

1.9

per game

BTTS

30%

both scored

Over 2.5

30%

3+ goals

Tepatitlán

Recent
DWLDWW
Wins 5Goals 13-6

Biggest win 3-0

Dorados

Recent
DLWDLL
Wins 3Goals 6-13

Biggest win 1-0

  • Dorados0-0Tepatitlán
  • Tepatitlán3-0Dorados
  • Dorados1-0Tepatitlán
  • Tepatitlán1-1Dorados
  • Tepatitlán2-0Dorados
  • Dorados1-2Tepatitlán
  • Dorados2-1Tepatitlán
  • Tepatitlán2-0Dorados
  • Tepatitlán2-0Dorados
  • Dorados1-0Tepatitlán

Managers

H. Real

Mexico · 44

In charge since 2024 · 2 clubs managed

  • Durango2022–2024

C. Saucedo

Mexico · 43

In charge since 2025 · 3 clubs managed

  • Tijuana2025–2025
  • Tijuana2023–2023

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.