Skip to content
Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 26 · Portugal

Feirense v Penafiel

1-0Full time· Estadio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira· Referee: J. Goncalves

Share
Match analysisPre-match brief

Feirense v Penafiel: the model read

Feirense meet Penafiel in the Segunda Liga regular season - 26 at Estadio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira. The model makes Feirense the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% FEI, 32% draw, 31% PEN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Feirense, 55% against 43%. Attacking output favors Feirense on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Feirense at 54%; double chance reads Feirense or draw 69%, Penafiel or draw 64%.

Feirense arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Arouca, D 2-2 @ União de Leiria, L 1-2 v Oliveirense, W 2-1 @ Pacos Ferreira.

Penafiel are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 2 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Leganes, D 0-0 @ Famalicao, L 0-5 @ Guimaraes, L 1-2 @ Pacos Ferreira.

Feirense hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 3 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Feirense 1-0 Penafiel.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

Pro

The model forecast is a Pro feature.

Live scores, stats and commentary are always free. The glass-box model — probabilities, the edge against the market and the full match dossier — unlocks on Pro.

See plans

Feirense

DWLDD8-6-6

Scored 1.05 · Conceded 1.15 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 45%

  • DHArouca0-0
  • DAUnião de Leiria2-2
  • LHOliveirense1-2
  • WAPacos Ferreira2-1
  • DHTorreense0-0

Penafiel

WLLDL6-5-9

Scored 1.05 · Conceded 1.40 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 40%

  • LHLeganes0-2
  • DAFamalicao0-0
  • LAGuimaraes0-5
  • LAPacos Ferreira1-2
  • WHMaritimo1-0

Head-to-head

10 meetings

FeirenserecordPenafiel
7
3
0 draws

Goals

15-9

for each

Avg goals

2.4

per game

BTTS

50%

both scored

Over 2.5

60%

3+ goals

Feirense

Recent
WWWWLW
Wins 7Goals 15-9

Biggest win 3-0

Penafiel

Recent
LLLLWL
Wins 3Goals 9-15

Biggest win 2-0

  • Feirense1-0Penafiel
  • Penafiel1-2Feirense
  • Penafiel1-2Feirense
  • Feirense3-0Penafiel
  • Penafiel2-1Feirense
  • Feirense2-0Penafiel
  • Feirense2-1Penafiel
  • Penafiel0-1Feirense
  • Penafiel2-0Feirense
  • Feirense1-2Penafiel

Managers

Ricardo Costa

Head coach

In charge since 2025

Hélder Cristóvão

Portugal · 54

In charge since 2023 · 7 clubs managed

  • Al Hazem2021–2021
  • DAC 19042020–2020
  • Al Ettifaq2019–2019
  • Al Nassr2018–2019

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.