Casa Pia v Tondela: the model read
Casa Pia meet Tondela in the Primeira Liga regular season - 32 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior. The model makes Casa Pia the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% CAS, 33% draw, 33% TON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 45%. Attacking output favors Tondela on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Casa Pia at 50%; double chance reads Casa Pia or draw 67%, Tondela or draw 66%.
Casa Pia arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Estrela, W 2-0 v Torreense, D 0-0 @ Torreense, D 1-1 v Rio Ave.
Tondela are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Academica, D 1-1 v Nacional, W 1-0 v Varzim, L 1-3 @ Arouca.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Casa Pia 0-1 Tondela.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
