Benfica v Moreirense: the model read
Benfica meet Moreirense in the Primeira Liga regular season - 31 at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. The model makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% BEN, 28% draw, 21% MOR.
Benfica rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1420. Recent form leans Benfica, 73% against 38%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 71%; double chance reads Benfica or draw 79%, Moreirense or draw 49%.
Benfica arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo, W 3-1 @ Estoril, D 2-2 v SC Braga.
Moreirense are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Santa Clara, D 2-2 v AVS, D 0-0 v AVS, L 0-2 @ Tondela.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
