Sporting CP v Benfica: the model read
Sporting CP meet Benfica in the Primeira Liga regular season - 30 at Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon. The model makes Sporting CP the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% SPO, 29% draw, 31% BEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 68%. Attacking output favors Sporting CP on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Sporting CP at 56%; double chance reads Sporting CP or draw 69%, Benfica or draw 60%.
Sporting CP arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 19 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 v Strasbourg, W 4-1 v Celtic, L 1-2 v Torreense, W 3-0 v GIL Vicente.
Benfica are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ FC ST. Gallen, W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo, W 3-1 @ Estoril.
Sporting CP hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
