Guimaraes won 1-0 at Gil Vicente in a Primeira Liga match that was closer than the scoreline suggests, with the visitors' efficiency in front of goal proving decisive against a home side that created the better chances but lacked a finish. The Lemeister model had given Guimaraes a 38% win probability, making them slight favourites, and they delivered on that projection through a single goal just past the hour mark.
The only goal of the game arrived in the 66th minute, when Gustavo found the net after an assist from G. Nogueira. It was a normal goal and it proved enough, despite Gil Vicente having the statistical edge in most offensive categories. The home side finished with 52% possession, 12 total shots to Guimaraes' 11, and a significant advantage in expected goals of 1.21 to 0.82. They also had 10 corner kicks to the visitors' three, and more shots from inside the box (10) than Guimaraes managed overall. Gil Vicente's 12 shots generated 1.21 xG, suggesting they created chances worth more than a goal, while Guimaraes' 11 shots produced only 0.82 xG, indicating their winning goal came from less promising positions.
Yet the critical difference was in finishing and goalkeeping. Gil Vicente placed six of their 12 shots on target, but Guimaraes' goalkeeper made six saves, a figure that underscores the defensive work required and directly prevented what would have been multiple goals on expected terms. The away side had only three shots on target from 11 attempts, scoring with one of them. The goals prevented metric was identical for each goalkeeper at 0.97, meaning both keepers performed similarly above expectation, but Gil Vicente's failure to convert their superior shot volume was the game's decisive factor. The home side took 10 shots from inside the box compared to Guimaraes' six, yet managed only one more shot on target, indicating wasteful finishing or excellent blocking by the visitors' defence.
Passing statistics were almost identical, with Gil Vicente completing 77% of 376 passes and Guimaraes completing 76% of 352. Discipline was an issue for both teams, with two yellow cards each. Thiago Balieiro and Charles were booked for Guimaraes in the 81st and 83rd minutes respectively, while Ghislain Konan and Zé Carlos received yellow cards for Gil Vicente in the 83rd and 96th minutes. There were five substitutions made by each side, with the flurry of late bookings reflecting increased tension as the home side pushed for an equaliser.
The individual ratings reflect Guimaraes' defensive solidity. Charles earned the highest rating of 8.5, making him the standout performer and key to the clean sheet with a performance that the numbers confirm was above average. Gustavo Silva scored the winner and was rated 8.0, contributing the decisive moment while also pressing effectively as his team defended deep. Thiago Balieiro posted a 7.7 rating, underlining his role in midfield organisation. For Gil Vicente, Murilo Souza was their best player with a 7.7 rating, indicating he drove much of their positive play, while Daniel Figueira posted a 7.2 but could not find a way past Guimaraes' organised defence.
The result moves Guimaraes to 38 points after 30 matches, strengthening their position in the upper half of the Primeira Liga table and keeping them within striking distance of a potential European place. Gil Vicente remain on 31 points, sitting in mid-table but now with work to do in their remaining fixtures to secure a higher finish. The match followed the Lemeister model's expectation of a close contest, with the away side's slight favourite status justified by a narrow margin of victory built on defensive resolve and clinical finishing rather than attacking dominance. Gil Vicente will rue their inability to convert superior chances, while Guimaraes have shown they can win even when statistically second best.
