The Lemeister model judged Benfica a 46 per cent favourite before kick-off, and the visitors justified that billing with a 2-1 win at Gil Vicente, a result built on superior expected goals and composure in the decisive moments. Benfica's 1.17 xG against 0.79 told the story of a team that created the better chances, even as the hosts mustered more total shots. The balance of play was close: 51 per cent possession for Benfica, 401 passes to 385, and both sides completed 77-80 per cent of their passes. Yet the visitors were more efficient in the final third, placing only three of their 11 shots on target but scoring twice.
A. Silva opened the scoring in the 35th minute, finishing a move started by F. Aursnes for a normal goal that gave Benfica a deserved lead. The goal came despite Benfica having slightly fewer shots overall at that point, but they had already begun to tilt the expected-goals battle in their favour. Gil Vicente responded after the interval, equalising through H. Hernandez in the 51st minute, with S. Garcia providing the assist. The goal energised the home side, who had five shots on target by full time and forced four saves from Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, who was rated 7.2.
The match was decided in the 73rd minute when A. Schjelderup scored what proved to be the winner, an unassisted normal goal that restored Benfica's lead. Schjelderup also collected a yellow card three minutes later, reflective of a contest that grew increasingly fractious. Five yellow cards were issued in total, three to Benfica and two to Gil Vicente, with Nicolás Otamendi, and Alexander Bah also booked for the visitors, and Facundo Cáseres and Marvin Elimbi cautioned for the home side. The discipline was a minor factor; neither side went down to ten men.
Statistically, the match was defined by shot locations. Benfica took seven of their 11 attempts from inside the box, while Gil Vicente fired eight of their 13 from outside the area, limiting their high-value chances. Five of the visitors' shots were blocked, reflecting the hosts' defensive organisation, but only one of Gil Vicente's 13 efforts was blocked. The home side had five corners to Benfica's three, but could not translate set-piece pressure into a second equaliser. Gil Vicente were caught offside twice; Benfica never.
Among the performers, Gil Vicente's H. Hernandez led the match ratings with 7.5, combining his goal with an all-round attacking threat. Zé Carlos and Santi Garcia each earned 7.3, the latter providing the assist, while Luís Esteves posted 7.2. For Benfica, goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin was rated 7.2, his four saves proving vital in a match where the hosts tested him regularly. Murilo Souza of Gil Vicente rounded out the top-rated players with 7.0.
The result lifts Benfica's pursuit at the top end of the Primeira Liga table, keeping them within touch of the leaders after 24 rounds. For Gil Vicente, the defeat leaves them in mid-table, a reminder of the fine margins against the division's stronger sides. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 away win, which proved accurate on both the result and the scoreline.
