SSV Jahn Regensburg inflicted a heavy defeat on Hansa Rostock at the Ostseestadion, winning 5-2, in a result that the data shows was built on clinical finishing and a dominant attacking output. The Lemeister model had entered the match with Hansa Rostock as marginal favourites at 41%, but Regensburg's performance made a mockery of that projection.
Eric Hottmann was the defining figure of the afternoon, scoring four goals and providing an assist. He opened the scoring in the 12th minute from O. Schonfelder's assist, and then added a second in the 43rd minute, set up by N. Oliveira. Hottmann completed his hat-trick in first-half stoppage time, with N. Eichinger providing the assist, giving Regensburg a commanding 3-0 lead at the break. Hottmann added a fourth in the 49th minute, unassisted. Christian Kinsombi pulled a goal back for the hosts in the 51st minute from D. Hummel's assist, but any hope of a comeback was extinguished five minutes later when L. Wurm turned the ball into his own net. Hottmann completed his five-goal contribution with a seventh goal for Regensburg in the 87th minute, again assisted by Eichinger.
The visiting side's superiority is reflected in the core attacking metrics. Despite managing only 37% possession and completing just 227 of 299 passes against Rostock's 466 of 567, Regensburg generated 20 total shots to Rostock's 12. The quality of those chances was decisive, with Regensburg accumulating 3.52 expected goals against Rostock's 1.53, and placing nine shots on target compared to five. Rostock did muster ten shots from inside the box, but found the Regensburg goalkeeper in fine form, recording four saves. The hosts committed 9 fouls and collected three yellow cards, while Regensburg's four yellow cards were a product of a combative, but controlled, performance.
The defensive disparity is equally telling. Regensburg's goalkeeper made three saves, but Rostock's expected goals of 1.53 suggests they created few clear-cut opportunities despite their territorial dominance. The hosts' 82% pass accuracy was superior to Regensburg's 76%, but this possession was largely sterile, as evidenced by the 3.52 expected goals conceded. Rostock also won eight corners to Regensburg's four, yet failed to convert any set-piece advantage into a meaningful goal threat. The visitors, by contrast, scored from open play with ruthless efficiency.
The match ratings reflect the individual standouts, with Hottmann awarded a perfect 10 rating for his monumental contribution. Adrian Fein was an influential presence in midfield, earning an 8.7, and Eichinger's two assists were recognised with an 8.2 rating. Felix Gebhardt in goal was a steadying presence at 7.5, while David Hummel, despite being on the losing side, was Hansa's highest-rated player with a 7.3. Nick Seidel also registered a 7.3 for the visitors.
The result is a significant blow to Hansa Rostock, who will be concerned by the defensive fragility exposed here despite their territorial dominance. With four yellow cards collected themselves, including early bookings for Florian-Horst Carstens and Christian Kinsombi, discipline could also become a concern. For Regensburg, this was a statement of devastating offensive power, and the result moves them to a crucial three points in the 3. Liga regular season run-in, building momentum with a performance that far exceeded the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The visitors now sit in a strong position to push for promotion, while Rostock face a fight to stabilise their season after such a comprehensive dismantling on home soil.
