Hansa Rostock v FC Viktoria Köln

A clinical first-half burst and a well-taken third goal just after the hour gave Viktoria Köln a three-goal advantage that proved just enough to hold off a late Hansa Rostock fightback, as the visitors won 3-2 at the Ostseestadion. The data shows a match between a dominant but inefficient home side and a ruthless away team that took its limited chances. Possession was overwhelmingly in Rostock's favour at 69 per cent, and they generated an expected goals total of 2.6 from 20 shots, but Viktoria's 1.35 xG from only eight attempts produced three actual goals, a conversion rate that ultimately decided the contest.

Viktoria Köln opened the scoring in the 29th minute through L. Munst, whose goal came without a credited assist. The visitors doubled their lead before half-time when D. Otto found the net in the 41st minute, with S. Handle providing the assist. Otto then turned provider in the 54th minute, setting up Y. Tonye for the third goal that gave the visitors a commanding 3-0 lead. Those three strikes came from just three shots on target in the first hour, a testament to Viktoria's efficiency. Rostock's response was belated but spirited: D. Hummel pulled one back in the 81st minute, assisted by M. Krauss, and A. Voglsammer scored in the 90th minute to set up a tense finish, but the home side could not find an equaliser.

The statistical gulf in possession and territorial control did not translate into enough clear-cut chances. Rostock had 16 shots from inside the penalty area and ten corner kicks, but the visiting goalkeeper, Arne Schulz, was named among the standout performers with a rating of 8.2, making six saves to keep his side ahead. Viktoria's discipline was frayed by the pressure, with five yellow cards compared to Rostock's one, and they committed 17 fouls. However, their passing accuracy of 70 per cent, while significantly lower than Rostock's 86 per cent, was functional in the context of their game plan of hitting on the break.

Individually, the highest match rating belonged to Adrien Lebeau of Hansa Rostock, who earned an 8.7 for his influence from midfield even in defeat. Maximilian Krauss also impressed for the home side with an 8.5, contributing the assist for Hummel's goal. For Viktoria Köln, David Otto was central to the victory, scoring one and assisting another, earning a joint team-high 8.2 alongside goalkeeper Schulz. Arne Schulz's shot-stopping was a key factor in keeping Rostock at bay, while Christian Kinsombi also passed the 8.0 mark for the home side.

The Lemeister model had entered the match favouring Hansa Rostock with a 41 per cent win probability and a projected 3-2 scoreline, which accurately predicted the goal count but not the winner. The result leaves Rostock still in the hunt for points in the 3. Liga's regular-season run-in, while Viktoria Köln will take significant confidence from a disciplined away performance that maximised their opportunities against a side that dominated the ball but could not turn possession into enough goals.