JapanSouth Korea v Japan: the model read
South Korea meet Japan in the EAFF E-1 Football Championship group stage - 3 at Yongin Mireu Stadium, Yongin. The model makes Japan the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 28% SOU, 32% draw, 40% JAP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Japan, 73% against 63%. Attacking output favors Japan on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans Japan at 59%; double chance reads South Korea or draw 60%, Japan or draw 72%.
South Korea arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ South Africa, L 0-1 @ Mexico, W 2-1 v Czechia, W 1-0 v El Salvador.
Japan are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Brazil, D 1-1 v Sweden, W 4-0 @ Tunisia, D 2-2 @ Netherlands.
Japan hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: South Korea 0-1 Japan.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
