FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin: the model read
FSV Mainz 05 meet Union Berlin in the Bundesliga regular season - 33 at Mewa Arena, Mainz. The model makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 49% FSV, 26% draw, 25% UNI.
FSV Mainz 05 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1420. Recent form leans FSV Mainz 05, 63% against 38%. Attacking output favors FSV Mainz 05 on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans FSV Mainz 05 at 66%; double chance reads FSV Mainz 05 or draw 75%, Union Berlin or draw 51%.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 28 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern, W 10-0 @ Eisbachtal, W 11-0 @ Pfeddersheim, W 2-0 @ 1. FC Heidenheim.
Union Berlin are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 15 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ FC Aarau, D 1-1 @ FC Winterthur, L 0-2 @ FC Carl Zeiss Jena, D 1-1 @ Chemnitzer FC.
Union Berlin hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
