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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 · Germany

FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg

0-1Full time· Mewa Arena, Mainz· Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany

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Match analysisPre-match brief

FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg: the model read

FSV Mainz 05 meet SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga regular season - 29 at Mewa Arena, Mainz.

The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 73% against 73%. Attacking output favors FSV Mainz 05 on expected goals, 3.3 to 2.3 per match.

FSV Mainz 05 arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 20 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Hamburger SV, D 0-0 v SC Paderborn 07, W 9-0 @ Krieschow, W 2-1 v Bournemouth.

SC Freiburg are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ SC Paderborn 07, W 4-1 v Werder Bremen, W 4-1 v Motherwell, W 5-1 @ Fortuna Düsseldorf.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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FSV Mainz 05

WWWDW13-3-4

Scored 3.25 · Conceded 1.00 · Clean sheets 50% · BTTS 40%

  • WAHamburger SV5-0
  • DHSC Paderborn 070-0
  • WAKrieschow9-0
  • WHBournemouth2-1
  • WHParis FC4-0

SC Freiburg

WWWWW14-1-5

Scored 2.30 · Conceded 1.20 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 65%

  • WASC Paderborn 071-0
  • WHWerder Bremen4-1
  • WHMotherwell4-1
  • WAFortuna Düsseldorf5-1
  • WAMotherwell3-1

Managers

U. Fischer

Switzerland · 59

In charge since 2025 · 5 teams managed

  • Union Berlin2018–2023
  • Basel2015–2017
  • Thun2013–2015
  • Zürich2010–2012

J. Schuster

Germany · 40

In charge since 2024

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.