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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 25 · Germany

FSV Mainz 05 v VfB Stuttgart

2-2Full time· Mewa Arena, Mainz· Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

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Match analysisPre-match brief

FSV Mainz 05 v VfB Stuttgart: the model read

FSV Mainz 05 meet VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga regular season - 25 at Mewa Arena, Mainz. The model makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% FSV, 27% draw, 33% VFB.

The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 57%. Attacking output favors FSV Mainz 05 on expected goals, 2.4 to 2.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 84%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans FSV Mainz 05 at 55%; double chance reads FSV Mainz 05 or draw 67%, VfB Stuttgart or draw 60%.

FSV Mainz 05 arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 28 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern, W 10-0 @ Eisbachtal, W 11-0 @ Pfeddersheim, W 2-0 @ 1. FC Heidenheim.

VfB Stuttgart are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 15 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 @ Balingen, L 0-3 @ Bayern München, D 2-2 @ Eintracht Frankfurt, W 3-1 v Bayer Leverkusen.

VfB Stuttgart hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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FSV Mainz 05

LWWWW10-5-5

Scored 2.40 · Conceded 1.25 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 50%

  • WH1. FC Kaiserslautern4-1
  • WAEisbachtal10-0
  • WAPfeddersheim11-0
  • WA1. FC Heidenheim2-0
  • LHUnion Berlin1-3

VfB Stuttgart

DWDLW9-5-6

Scored 2.35 · Conceded 1.55 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 60%

  • WABalingen7-0
  • LABayern München0-3
  • DAEintracht Frankfurt2-2
  • WHBayer Leverkusen3-1
  • DA1899 Hoffenheim3-3

Head-to-head

10 meetings

FSV Mainz 05recordVfB Stuttgart
1
5
4 draws

Goals

12-20

for each

Avg goals

3.2

per game

BTTS

70%

both scored

Over 2.5

60%

3+ goals

FSV Mainz 05

Recent
DLLWDL
Wins 1Goals 12-20

Biggest win 2-0

VfB Stuttgart

Recent
DWWLDW
Wins 5Goals 20-12

Biggest win 4-1

  • FSV Mainz 052-2VfB Stuttgart
  • FSV Mainz 050-2VfB Stuttgart
  • VfB Stuttgart2-1FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 052-0VfB Stuttgart
  • VfB Stuttgart3-3FSV Mainz 05
  • VfB Stuttgart3-1FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 051-3VfB Stuttgart
  • FSV Mainz 051-4VfB Stuttgart
  • VfB Stuttgart1-1FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 050-0VfB Stuttgart

Managers

U. Fischer

Switzerland · 59

In charge since 2025 · 5 clubs managed

  • Union Berlin2018–2023
  • Basel2015–2017
  • Thun2013–2015
  • Zürich2010–2012

S. Hoeneb

Germany · 43

In charge since 2023 · 4 clubs managed

  • Hoffenheim2020–2022
  • Bayern München II2019–2020
  • Bayern München U192017–2019

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.