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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 17 · Germany

Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen

0-1Full time· Volksparkstadion, Hamburg· Referee: Sören Storks, Germany

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen: the model read

Hamburger SV meet Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga regular season - 17 at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.

Bayer Leverkusen rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1613 to 1454. Recent form leans Bayer Leverkusen, 63% against 43%. Attacking output favors Bayer Leverkusen on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 85%. Draw no bet leans Bayer Leverkusen at 66%; double chance reads Hamburger SV or draw 51%, Bayer Leverkusen or draw 75%.

Hamburger SV arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Borussia Dortmund, W 3-0 @ Verl, W 2-1 @ Toulouse, D 2-2 v Lille.

Bayer Leverkusen are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ SV Elversberg, W 4-0 @ SV Wehen, W 2-1 @ Newcastle, L 1-2 @ Nottingham Forest.

Bayer Leverkusen hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Hamburger SV

LDWWL6-5-9

Scored 1.45 · Conceded 1.70 · Clean sheets 5% · BTTS 80%

  • LABorussia Dortmund0-2
  • WAVerl3-0
  • WAToulouse2-1
  • DHLille2-2
  • LHEverton1-2

Bayer Leverkusen

WLWWL11-2-6

Scored 2.47 · Conceded 1.37 · Clean sheets 26.3% · BTTS 63.2%

  • LASV Elversberg2-3
  • WASV Wehen4-0
  • WANewcastle2-1
  • LANottingham Forest1-2
  • WHSevilla2-1

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Hamburger SVrecordBayer Leverkusen
2
6
2 draws

Goals

5-15

for each

Avg goals

2.0

per game

BTTS

30%

both scored

Over 2.5

40%

3+ goals

Hamburger SV

Recent
DLLLWL
Wins 2Goals 5-15

Biggest win 1-0

Bayer Leverkusen

Recent
DWWWLW
Wins 6Goals 15-5

Biggest win 4-0

  • Bayer Leverkusen1-1Hamburger SV
  • Hamburger SV0-1Bayer Leverkusen
  • Hamburger SV1-2Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen3-0Hamburger SV
  • Hamburger SV1-0Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen3-1Hamburger SV
  • Bayer Leverkusen1-0Hamburger SV
  • Hamburger SV0-0Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen4-0Hamburger SV
  • Hamburger SV1-0Bayer Leverkusen

Managers

M. Polzin

Germany · 35

In charge since 2024

  • Hamburg2024–2024

K. Hjulmand

Denmark · 53

In charge since 2025 · 4 teams managed

  • Denmark2020–2024
  • Nordsjælland2016–2019
  • Mainz2014–2015
  • Nordsjælland2011–2014

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.