Almere City FC secured a 3-1 victory over Vitesse at the GelreDome, a result that contradicted much of the underlying data. The Lemeister model had entered the match with Vitesse as the slight favourite at 36%, projecting a 2-1 home win, but clinical finishing from the visitors overturned that forecast. Despite being outshot and out-possessed, Almere City scored with three of their five shots on target, while Vitesse managed only one goal from their three. The gap between expected goals and actual output was striking: Vitesse created 1.97 expected goals but scored once, while Almere City generated only 0.98 yet found the net three times.
The visitors opened the scoring in the 13th minute, with J. Rijkhoff finishing from an E. Poku assist. Vitesse responded before half-time, levelling in the 41st minute when A. Tahaui converted a chance created by S. Bonnah. The match reached parity at 1-1 at the interval, though the first-half statistics already suggested an imbalance that would only grow. Vitesse held 59% possession throughout the match and attempted 22 total shots, dwarfing Almere City's seven. However, the home side placed only three of those efforts on goal, with ten going off target and nine blocked. Almere City's defence, well organised and committed, blocked nearly as many shots as the goalkeeper faced.
The second half decisively swung in Almere City's favour through F. Druijf, who scored twice. His first came in the 63rd minute from a B. Reith assist, and his second in the 76th minute from another E. Poku pass. Druijf's match rating of 8.9 was the highest on the pitch, reflecting his decisive contribution in a match where chances were scarce for his side. The defensive resilience required to hold the lead was demonstrated by goalkeeper Jonas Wendlinger, who made two saves and earned a 7.3 rating, while the back line limited Vitesse to those three shots on target despite facing a relentless volume of attempts.
The shot map further illustrates Vitesse's frustration. Of their 22 total shots, 16 came from inside the box, indicating they reached dangerous areas but could not finish. The nine blocked attempts point to Almere City's willingness to sacrifice bodies to protect their goal. Vitesse also dominated set pieces, earning eight corner kicks to Almere City's two, but could not convert any into a goal. Passing was efficient on both sides, with Vitesse completing 429 of 528 passes for 81% accuracy and Almere City 305 of 389 for 78%, but the visitors' passing was more purposeful in the attacking third. Discipline was even in fouls, with each side committing 11, though Vitesse collected two yellow cards to Almere City's one. Marco Schikora and Valon Zumberi were booked for the home side, while Milan de Haan received a yellow for the visitors.
In terms of individual performances beyond the goalscorers, Vitesse's Marco Schikora earned an 8.0 rating, the highest for his side, suggesting he was effective in midfield despite the defeat. Adam Tahaui, who scored, received a 7.6, while Omar Achouitar and Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz both rated 7.2, indicating a solid but not exceptional showing from the home side's supporting cast. For Almere City, Jonas Wendlinger's 7.3 rating as goalkeeper underscores the defensive effort required to secure the win.
This defeat leaves Vitesse with concerns about converting dominance into points. Their expected goals figure of nearly two and their 22-shot tally indicate they created enough to win, but poor finishing and an effective Almere City counter-attack proved decisive. For Almere City, the victory was built on ruthlessness and defensive organisation, earning a crucial three points that could shift momentum in the lower reaches of the Eerste Divisie table. The Lemeister model had predicted a Vitesse win, but the actual outcome highlighted how final-shot conversion can override almost any other metric.
