MVV v De Graafschap: the model read
MVV meet De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 29 at De Geusselt, Maastricht. The model makes De Graafschap the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 27% MVV, 27% draw, 46% DE .
De Graafschap rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans De Graafschap, 53% against 38%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans De Graafschap at 63%; double chance reads MVV or draw 54%, De Graafschap or draw 73%.
MVV arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ EVV, D 0-0 v Racing FC Union Luxembourg, D 0-0 @ Seraing United, W 4-1 @ FC Viktoria Köln.
De Graafschap are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 3-6 v Telstar, L 1-2 v AEK Athens FC, L 2-7 @ Heerenveen, W 2-1 @ Utrecht.
De Graafschap hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
