Spain and Portugal played out a 2-2 draw in the UEFA Nations League final at the Allianz Arena, a result that the Lemeister model had largely anticipated by giving Spain a 46 per cent win probability and Portugal 24 per cent, with a 30 per cent chance of the draw that eventually materialised. The numbers show a contest dominated territorially by Spain, who held 61 per cent possession and attempted 16 shots to Portugal's seven, yet one where the final scoreline reflected Portugal's greater efficiency in front of goal. Spain registered six shots on target but were unable to convert their superiority into a winning margin, while Portugal scored twice from only two efforts on goal.
Spain took the lead in the 21st minute through Martín Zubimendi, whose finish from open play opened the scoring. The goal was not assisted. Portugal responded quickly through Nuno Mendes in the 26th minute, with Pedro Neto providing the assist for a goal that brought the scores level. The half remained open and Spain regained the advantage just before the interval when Mikel Oyarzabal scored in the 45th minute, assisted by Pedri. That goal sent Spain into the break with a 2-1 lead and with the statistical narrative already tilting in their favour.
Portugal's equaliser arrived in the 61st minute when Cristiano Ronaldo scored unassisted to make it 2-2. That goal proved to be Portugal's final shot on target of the match. From that point, Spain pushed for a winner but found Portugal's goalkeeper in resolute form, making four saves in total. Spain's eight shots from outside the box and eight from inside the box highlighted their persistent attacking intent, but their expected goals burden was not converted into a third goal. Portugal, by contrast, managed only five shots inside the box and two from distance, yet their two shots on target both beat the goalkeeper.
The match was also notable for a high number of cards, with seven yellow cards issued across the two sides. Portugal's bookings went to Gonçalo Inácio, Pedro Neto and Nuno Mendes. Spain received four yellow cards for Fabián Ruiz, Robin Le Normand, Alejandro Baena and Pedro Porro. The foul count was tight, with Portugal committing 14 and Spain 19, reflecting the combative nature of a final. Both sides used all six of their permitted substitutes as the game wore deep into added time.
The highest-rated player on the pitch was Nuno Mendes of Portugal, who scored and earned an 8.3 rating. For Spain, Pedri, Martín Zubimendi and Lamine Yamal each recorded a 7.9 rating, underlining the midfield and attacking quality that generated their statistical dominance. Cristiano Ronaldo and Mikel Oyarzabal both finished with 7.3 ratings. Spain's 93 per cent passing accuracy from 812 passes, compared to Portugal's 86 per cent from 510, illustrated their control of the ball, but the inability to turn that into a decisive shot advantage on target proved costly.
The draw means Spain remain without a win in this final, while Portugal extend a run of competitive fixtures without defeat. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow away win for Spain, but Portugal's capacity to take their chances kept the silverware shared. In a tournament final defined by Spain's possession and Portugal's finishing, the data ultimately points to a fair outcome between two well-matched sides.
Portugal 
Spain
