Itapirense v Francana: the model read
Itapirense meet Francana in the Copa Paulista 1st round - 8 at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira, Itapira, São Paulo. The model makes Francana the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 32% ITA, 32% draw, 36% FRA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Francana, 33% against 23%. Attacking output favors Itapirense on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Francana at 53%; double chance reads Itapirense or draw 64%, Francana or draw 68%.
Itapirense arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rio Preto, L 0-1 @ Uniao Barbarense, L 2-3 @ Rio Branco SP, L 0-3 v EC São Bernardo.
Francana are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Marília, W 3-0 v Rio Claro, L 1-2 @ União São João, L 0-1 @ Portuguesa Santista.
Itapirense hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Itapirense 2-0 Francana.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
