Sao Bento v Guarani B: the model read
Sao Bento meet Guarani B in the Copa Paulista 1st round - 4 at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro, Sorocaba. The model makes Guarani B the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 33% SAO, 32% draw, 36% GUA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 25% against 28%. Attacking output favors Guarani B on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Guarani B at 52%; double chance reads Sao Bento or draw 64%, Guarani B or draw 67%.
Sao Bento arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Santo André, L 2-3 v Taubaté, W 1-0 v Linense, D 0-0 @ Juventus.
Guarani B are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Rio Branco SP, L 1-2 v Sao Bento, L 0-1 @ XV de Piracicaba, L 0-3 v Primavera SP.
Sao Bento hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guarani B 1-2 Sao Bento.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
