Manthiqueira v Mauaense: the model read
Manthiqueira meet Mauaense in the Paulista Série B 1st phase - 8 at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite, Guaratinguetá, São Paulo. The model makes Mauaense the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 30% MAN, 31% draw, 38% MAU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mauaense, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Manthiqueira on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Mauaense at 56%; double chance reads Manthiqueira or draw 62%, Mauaense or draw 70%.
Manthiqueira arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ José Bonifácio, L 0-2 v José Bonifácio, W 2-1 v Mauaense, W 5-1 @ Barcelona EC.
Mauaense are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Manthiqueira, L 0-1 v Uniao Mogi, W 2-0 @ Barcelona EC, D 1-1 @ Maua.
Manthiqueira hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Manthiqueira 2-1 Mauaense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output