Manthiqueira v Maua: the model read
Manthiqueira meet Maua in the Paulista Série B 1st phase - 6 at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite, Guaratinguetá, São Paulo. The model makes Maua the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 29% MAN, 29% draw, 42% MAU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Maua, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Maua on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Maua at 60%; double chance reads Manthiqueira or draw 58%, Maua or draw 71%.
Manthiqueira arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ José Bonifácio, L 0-2 v José Bonifácio, W 2-1 v Mauaense, W 5-1 @ Barcelona EC.
Maua are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Uniao Mogi, W 3-2 @ Uniao Mogi, W 6-0 v Barcelona EC, L 1-5 @ Itaquá Athletico Clube.
Maua hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Manthiqueira 4-2 Maua.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output