Ponte Preta v AO Itabaiana: the model read
Ponte Preta meet AO Itabaiana in the Serie C regular season - 17 at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas. The model makes AO Itabaiana the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 27% PON, 34% draw, 39% AO .
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans AO Itabaiana, 43% against 20%. Attacking output favors AO Itabaiana on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans AO Itabaiana at 59%; double chance reads Ponte Preta or draw 61%, AO Itabaiana or draw 73%.
Ponte Preta arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Goias, L 1-2 v Criciuma, L 0-2 @ Fortaleza EC, L 0-2 @ Atletico Goianiense.
AO Itabaiana are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Brusque, W 2-0 @ Amazonas, W 1-0 v Ferroviária, L 0-2 @ Anápolis.
Ponte Preta hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Ponte Preta 1-0 AO Itabaiana.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
