AO Itabaiana v Sergipe: the model read
AO Itabaiana meet Sergipe in the Sergipano play-offs at Estádio Etelvino Mendonça, Itabaiana, Sergipe. The model makes Sergipe the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 27% AO , 33% draw, 40% SER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sergipe, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors Sergipe on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Sergipe at 59%; double chance reads AO Itabaiana or draw 60%, Sergipe or draw 73%.
AO Itabaiana arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Brusque, W 2-0 @ Amazonas, W 1-0 v Ferroviária, L 0-2 @ Anápolis.
Sergipe are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v ASA, D 1-1 @ ASA, D 1-1 v Serra Branca, L 2-3 @ Decisão.
Sergipe hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AO Itabaiana 0-1 Sergipe.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
