Criciuma v Paysandu: the model read
Criciuma meet Paysandu in the Serie B regular season - 29 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma, Santa Catarina. The model makes Criciuma the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% CRI, 31% draw, 31% PAY.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Criciuma, 75% against 63%. Attacking output favors Paysandu on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Criciuma at 55%; double chance reads Criciuma or draw 69%, Paysandu or draw 62%.
Criciuma arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Novorizontino, W 2-0 v Vila Nova, W 2-1 @ Ponte Preta, W 1-0 v Sport Recife.
Paysandu are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Guarani Campinas, L 0-1 @ Ypiranga-RS, L 1-3 v Santa Cruz, W 1-0 @ Maranhão.
Criciuma hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Criciuma 2-4 Paysandu.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
