EC São Bernardo v Itapirense: the model read
EC São Bernardo meet Itapirense in the Paulista - A3 1st phase - 15 at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira, Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo. The model makes EC São Bernardo the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% EC , 29% draw, 24% ITA.
EC São Bernardo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1535 to 1400. Recent form leans EC São Bernardo, 55% against 23%. Attacking output favors EC São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans EC São Bernardo at 67%; double chance reads EC São Bernardo or draw 76%, Itapirense or draw 53%.
EC São Bernardo arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Santo André, L 0-2 @ Marília, W 2-0 v Marília, D 2-2 @ União São João.
Itapirense are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rio Preto, L 0-1 @ Uniao Barbarense, L 2-3 @ Rio Branco SP, L 0-3 v EC São Bernardo.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Itapirense 0-3 EC São Bernardo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
