EC São Bernardo v EC Lemense: the model read
EC São Bernardo meet EC Lemense in the Paulista - A3 1st phase - 13 at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira, Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo. The model makes EC São Bernardo the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% EC , 33% draw, 27% EC .
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans EC São Bernardo, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors EC São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans EC São Bernardo at 60%; double chance reads EC São Bernardo or draw 73%, EC Lemense or draw 60%.
EC São Bernardo arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Santo André, L 0-2 @ Marília, W 2-0 v Marília, D 2-2 @ União São João.
EC Lemense are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Inter de Bebedouro, L 0-2 v Inter de Bebedouro, D 1-1 v Grêmio Sãocarlense, L 0-2 @ ECUS.
EC São Bernardo hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: EC São Bernardo 2-1 EC Lemense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
