EC São Bernardo v União São João: the model read
EC São Bernardo meet União São João in the Paulista - A3 1st phase - 9 at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira, Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo. The model makes EC São Bernardo the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% EC , 32% draw, 28% UNI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans EC São Bernardo, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors EC São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans EC São Bernardo at 59%; double chance reads EC São Bernardo or draw 72%, União São João or draw 60%.
EC São Bernardo arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Santo André, L 0-2 @ Marília, W 2-0 v Marília, D 2-2 @ União São João.
União São João are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Santos, D 2-2 v EC São Bernardo, L 0-3 @ Paulista, W 2-1 v Francana.
EC São Bernardo hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: União São João 2-2 EC São Bernardo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
