EC Lemense v Comercial: the model read
EC Lemense meet Comercial in the Paulista - A3 1st phase - 1 at Estádio Municipal Bruno Lazzarini, Leme, São Paulo. The model makes Comercial the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 28% EC , 35% draw, 38% COM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Comercial, 53% against 40%. Attacking output favors Comercial on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Comercial at 57%; double chance reads EC Lemense or draw 62%, Comercial or draw 72%.
EC Lemense arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Inter de Bebedouro, L 0-2 v Inter de Bebedouro, D 1-1 v Grêmio Sãocarlense, L 0-2 @ ECUS.
Comercial are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Noroeste, W 2-1 v Tanabi, L 1-2 @ Jabaquara, W 1-0 v Inter de Bebedouro.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Comercial 0-1 EC Lemense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
