Villa Mitre v Santamarina: the model read
Villa Mitre meet Santamarina in the Torneo Federal A promotion play-offs - 5th round at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti, Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 38% VIL, 39% draw, 23% SAN.
Villa Mitre rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1420. Recent form leans Villa Mitre, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Villa Mitre on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 10%, over 2.5 goals around 7%. Draw no bet leans Villa Mitre at 62%; double chance reads Villa Mitre or draw 77%, Santamarina or draw 62%.
Villa Mitre arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 6 scored and 0 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Guillermo Brown, D 0-0 @ Olimpo Bahia Blanca, W 1-0 v Alvarado, W 2-0 @ Santamarina.
Santamarina are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 1 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Alvarado, L 0-1 @ Germinal de Rawson, L 0-2 v Villa Mitre, D 0-0 @ Circulo Deportivo.
Villa Mitre hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Santamarina 0-2 Villa Mitre.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
