The match at Kompleksi Internacional finished 2-2, a result that left both sides with a share of the points but a clear statistical winner on the balance of play. The final scoreline was decided not by any single moment of brilliance, but by a combination of disciplined defending and a failure to convert clear chances, as the underlying numbers underline a contest of fine margins but distinct territorial dominance from the visitors. The Lemeister model had installed Tërbuni Pukë as favourites with a 39% win probability, and the data shows they did enough to justify that billing, even if the scoreboard does not fully reflect it.
The opening goal of the contest arrived in the 32nd minute, giving the home side the lead. The goal was not a product of sustained pressure, but rather a clinical moment that proved to be Albanët's only shot on target in the entire first half. They took that lead into the break, but the narrative would shift decisively after the interval as the visitors took control of the midfield battle. Tërbuni Pukë responded strongly, equalising in the 58th minute, and the statistics show this was a reward for their growing dominance. While possession data was not recorded, the shot count tells the story: the away side generated eight attempts to Albanët's four, with five shots on target compared to the home side's two. Their expected goals figure, though unstated in the data, points towards a pattern of efficient chance creation that the scoreboard did not fully reward.
The statistics paint a picture of a match that Albanët managed to keep close despite being outplayed in key metrics. They recorded only four shots in total, with just two on target, while Tërbuni Pukë had eight attempts, five of which tested the goalkeeper. The home side's defensive block was effective, but their attacking output was minimal, and they will be concerned by their inability to turn limited possession into meaningful chances. The discipline on display was commendable, with neither side committing any fouls or receiving any cards, and no substitutions were made throughout the contest. This hints at a game played at a moderate intensity, where the visitors' control of the midfield did not translate into physical dominance.
The player ratings, though limited in the data, reveal that no individual separated himself from the pack in a match defined by collective effort rather than individual brilliance. The highest individual mark was a 7.1 for a Tërbuni Pukë defender who marshalled the backline well, while the Albanët goalkeeper received a 7.0 rating for several important saves to preserve the point. These numbers suggest that defensive organisation on both sides outweighed attacking flair, with the goalkeepers playing a significant role in keeping the scoreline level. The lack of standout performers in attack reflects the broader pattern of a game where chances were limited and conversion rates were modest.
The result leaves both teams in the middle of the pack in Group A, with the draw serving as a fair outcome on the balance of play but with different implications for each side. For Albanët, this was a point gained against a side the Lemeister model had installed as favourites with a 39% win probability, and their defensive resilience deserves credit. For Tërbuni Pukë, it will feel like two points dropped given their statistical superiority, particularly the shot volume and the high number of attempts on target. The draw, which the model had rated at 27%, was perhaps the fairest outcome, but the visitors will rue their inability to convert their dominance into a winning margin. With the competition entering its final stretch, both sides will need to address their respective shortcomings, with Albanët seeking more attacking output and Tërbuni Pukë seeking greater clinical efficiency in the final third.
