Ferro Carril v Oriental: the model read
Ferro Carril meet Oriental in the Copa Uruguay round of 32 at Estadio Ernesto Dickinson, Salto. The model makes Oriental the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% FER, 31% draw, 37% ORI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1547 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 60%. Attacking output favors Oriental on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Oriental at 54%; double chance reads Ferro Carril or draw 63%, Oriental or draw 68%.
Ferro Carril arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-6 @ Defensor Sporting, D 1-1 v Melo Wanderers, W 2-1 v Oriental, D 1-1 v Peñarol de Rivera.
Oriental are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Sportivo Huracan, D 1-1 @ Uruguay Montevideo, L 1-2 v CA River Plate, D 1-1 v Colón.
Ferro Carril hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Ferro Carril 2-1 Oriental.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
