Guarda v Alpendorada: the model read
Guarda meet Alpendorada in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B group b - 22 at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda. The model makes Alpendorada the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 31% GUA, 34% draw, 35% ALP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Alpendorada on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Alpendorada at 53%; double chance reads Guarda or draw 65%, Alpendorada or draw 69%.
Guarda arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Régua, L 2-6 @ Leça, L 0-1 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Machico.
Alpendorada are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 v Resende, W 2-0 @ Salgueiros, L 0-1 v Beira-Mar, W 3-0 @ Anadia.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guarda 0-1 Alpendorada.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
